A Tormented, Defeated People Lash Back with Minority Bashing, Hate & Faux Nationalism

The Indian economic growth story has been one taking place in fits-and-starts, ever since the then Finance Minister, Manmohan Singh, opened up the economy, as mandated by the World Bank & IMF. The painful Hindu rate of growth became a thing of the past for sometime and the economy picked up steam during the early and mid 90s fuelling hopes that India was on course to get near China's spectacular economics growth story and rival the Asian tiger economies which were riding the wave based on export-led growth.

Several things have happened over the years, since that time. The growth story faltered on the back of sharply inequitable growth, a bureaucracy which was lumbering, corrupt and crying out to be overhauled and India's lack of substantial investment in areas like infrastructure, education and healthcare.  China meanwhile was powering ahead with its grand plan of becoming the manufacturing capital of the world.

The South-East economies too invested heavily in infrastructure, education and healthcare and building up an export-led economic growth. India, particularly after its political destablization and uncertainties during the mid and late 90s, fell back considerably, in this race. The lack of infrastructure and the lack of a skilled workforces in the numbers required by many foreign investors, deterred many foreign investors from investing in India. Alternatives like China and the Asian tiger economies looked far more attractive. The story of how investments in South Korea picked up steam during the 1990s is truly illustrative.

Economic growth picked up during the UPA's first five years, from 2004 - 2009. UPA II, however faltered badly between the years 2009 - 2014 owing to multiple factors, not the least among them being a global recession during 2008/09 and a policy paralysis on the part of the government. 

The growing inequity and the rising unemployment figures were evident to a lot of people already. The unorganized sector, together with the farming sector, was floundering badly. A study estimated that 93% of MBA graduates, churned out by India's teeming MBA institutes, were unemployable. The picture wasn't much better when it came to engineering and other graduates.

Dissatisfaction with the state of affairs and discontent born out of the gaping chasm between promises and reality hit a lot of people, particularly the younger generation, hard. The success of China and the Asian tigers, brought about a realization that India had been left behind in the dust and was in no position to compete with any of these countries, any time in the foreseeable future. 

Was the government entirely to blame for this state of affairs? Not wholly, though it had to share the blame for the state of affairs large numbers of Indians found themselves in. Comparisons with China's story, added fuel to the fire. It is possibly one of the most difficult propositions in life to accept the fact that one is a loser and, an inability to accept this unpalatable reality, led to a lot of finger-pointing at individuals, institutions and political leaders.

Shanghai, China

While casting around for alternatives, the Gujarat model, apparently brought about by a Hindutva bigot who had ruled over the state for over a decade and whose assembled marketing machinery consistently spun a lot of tall tales about the man and his achievements, caught the imagination of a large section of the masses, particularly the embittered middle classes and the disgruntled youth. Secularism, liberalism and too much of democracy were sold as the prime reasons for India's woes. The fact that Gujarat's human development index was way below that of several other states, mattered little in this carefully crafted and largely false narrative. The idea grew that a strongman, with a 56" chest (self proclaimed during election campaigns) and a history of wrestling with crocodiles in his formative years, would sweep aside all the inefficiencies and policies of the previous years and restore India to its rightful place of glory in the world. Minorities, specifically Muslims, who constitute 15% of India's population, were held up as among the prime reasons for impeding the growth of the majority Hindu community (80% of the population). Pandering to faux nationalism and teaching India's favourite bugbear, Pakistan, a fitting lesson,  was the icing on top of this carefully crafted package. Promises of a runaway economic growth were held out to the mesmerised masses.

Gangnam-gu, Seoul, South Korea

Cut to the present. The hammer blows of demonetisation, and an ill-planned and poorly implemented GST had brought the Indian economy to its knees and caused untold miseries to the unorganized sector, the daily-wage workers and the SME sector much before the Coronavirus pandemic unfolded. The Coronavirus pandemic contributed to an economy which was already gasping for oxygen. The Indian economy is now into its worst recession since independence and, realistically speaking, no recovery is deemed possible by eminent economists before late 2022. 

Meanwhile the disillusioned and hapless masses are fed on a steady stream of distraction, suppressed facts which are bad news and plain disinformation. The absence of advice from expert and trained economists has contributed to the fact that India is inexorably sliding down a slippery slope to nowhere economically, socially and culturally. The discontent evident in the farmers' protests and the government's response in finding a solution even after nine rounds of talks, spread out over many weeks, is indicative of the modus operandi of this government. 

It is doubtful how long the lid can be kept on the boiling cauldron of economic woes and the worst unemployment in over 4 decades through distraction, disinformation, minority bashing and faux nationalism. Once the lid is finally blown off, social upheaval on a scale, never before seen in India, could well become the resultant.

-- Raja Mitra